Five Forty Three

Revolutionizing Indian Election Analysis

The 2014 Electoral Map of India Part 2: Projections

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In India, people are always found quoting anecdotes from their maids, taxi drivers, autowallahs et al. regarding the political wind blowing in the country. Often we are left wondering as to how such random anecdotes can hold any significance in a country of 1.25 billion people, for surely there should be an equal number of people who must be saying the exact opposite thing? Yet, there is innate wisdom in these random voices that we hear from time to time as this author has discovered in his various travels across this country. Indeed, if we dig the literature of the late 70s and the JP movement, we find that reams and reams of newspaper columns, books, analysis pieces, etc. have all used these localized voices to understand the impact of the JP movement against a deeply entrenched Congress establishment.

Of course, a lot of water has flown in the Yamuna since then and these days we have powerful tools like poll surveys with controlled sample sizes, which invariably fail time and again. 5Forty3 decided to glorify the anecdotal format of poll survey by creating a mathematical model out of chaos.

  1. The first step in that process was to create a level of sophistication in data collection in order to avoid the almost impossible task of reaching out to all the voices of different people in the ground. The best way to do that is to get information from those who listen to these voices in the ground – local journalists, political workers, activists etc. – and collate them together.
  2. The second step was to get specific inputs on MP seats of a particular state from these data collection points. For this we created a list of MPs of that particular state or region along with the 2009 vote tally of each party and requested specific inputs for 2014.
  3. The third step was to allocate weightage and create a mathematical model to remove whipsaws to arrive at the final set of numbers.

We started what is possibly the largest exercise and greatest electoral experiment of our times with an ambition of achieving a target of 1000+ respondents, but were able to achieve only about 70% of that as we got responses from 726 nodes from 22 states across India! (In the North East, we got responses only from Assam and also we didn’t get any responses from Goa). This exercise was conducted in two phases; phase 1, from November 8th to November 27th, for the 4 states of MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi along with the state elections. The second phase from December 12th to January 6th (2014) across the rest of India (adequate care was taken not to include armchair pundits of the Twitter variety who keep throwing numbers every passing day and instead localized voices were given preference).

Roughly 50% of the responses were recorded through telephonic interviews (more than 600MB of recorded conversational responses), which goes on to show how the ubiquitous mobile phone has become the most important tool of information collection from the remotest parts of India. About 25% of the responses were received through emails and 15% through the snail-mail. Only about 10% of the respondents were contacted directly in person for a detailed interview. Although a fairly large sample size was achieved, it was skewed along different zones of India. For instance, we got a whopping 66 responses from Uttar Pradesh, but only 3 from states like Orissa and Kerala.

This exercise was not limited to neutral voices of journalists or activists, but also frank assessments from partisan voices too, spanning the entire political spectrum though; for instance a lifelong Sharad Pawar acolyte and NCP leader from Kolhapur, a sitting Congress MLA from Karnataka, an ex MLA of SP from West UP and a young BJP leader from UP closely related to a former CM were all part of this exercise.

The mathematical model was based on these four fundamental principles;

  • Each tick for a particular party for a particular MP seat gets points which cancel each other out when different responses vary in preferences for the said MP seat
  • Neutral voices generally get higher points than party workers and activists with political leanings.
  • In particular cases, neutral voices get higher weightage than those having particular political leanings; for instance, if a BJP leaning respondent allocates a particular MP seat to BJP then that would get 1 point, but if a local journalist also allocates that particular MP seat to BJP, then it would fetch 3 points.
  • Thumb rule of opposition voices getting higher values. For instance, in particular cases where a BJP worker allocates a particular MP seat to say Samajwadi Party, that fetches a 5 point advantage to SP in that seat.

A large number of responses have indicated that these preferences would change based on candidate selection, so at best these can be termed as “preliminary responses” based on political parties (also received fairly large number of responses which suggest particular candidates for particular political parties in particular MP seats).  We have also made certain presumptions before conducting this exercise which may change eventually; for ex: BSY’s KJP has been included as part of the BJP in Karnataka, RJD & LJP have been included as part of UPA in Bihar & Jharkhand and MNS is considered as part of NDA in Maharashtra.

Based on these 726 responses from 22 states of India, 5Forty3 has further divided the 3 zones of the electoral map of India into 7 territories. These are our first round of projections for India along these 7 territories for 2014 and we hope to expand the scope and size of this exercise in the run-up to the general elections, provided we can afford to allocate the resources and time.

East India

East India Prjections InputStarting this seat projection exercise from the East which is divided into two territories, 1 & 2 – while 1 includes the seven sisters of North East, 2 is made up of the two big states of East, West Bengal and Orissa. The one common thread binding all the states of East India is political status-quo, for governments rarely ever get changed in decades.

Territory 1:

Apart from Assam, 5Forty3 hasn’t received any inputs from the other North-Eastern states, but the projections are based on mainly past performances of the parties; for instance, in the 2 MP seats of Tripura, CPM has consistently won by huge margins (the margins of 2009 ranged from 1.5 lakhs to 3 lakhs), which are unlikely to be reversed even in 2014. There are also a few battleground seats like Arunachal West, where the BJP had lost 2009 just by a few hundred votes. The lone NDA seat comes from NPP (Naga People’s Front) which it has won by a whopping 5 lakh votes in 2009. If NCP of Sangma joins the NDA, then the tally may increase substantially.

The three seats that BJP is expected to win come from Assam where there seems to be a polarized atmosphere due to the long standing Bangladeshi refugee issue. AGP as part of NDA is not expected to perform well and is ahead in just one seat. The fourth front is mainly made up of AUDF here, and there are 10 battleground seats.

Territory 2:

The Fourth Front of Trinamool Congress is expected to sweep West Bengal by a big margin as per all inputs from the state, wherein barring a few seats the Left Front may not put up a fight against Mamata Didi. Congress is facing near decimation in WB and may cease to exist in the state after the 2014 polls. In the neighboring Orissa though the situation is changing slightly; there seems to be a new mobilization of Adivasi and Dalit votes in this state in favor of the Congress which is seen as a continuing experiment from Bastar and Sarguja of the neighboring Chhattisgarh, where Congress performed surprisingly well in the just concluded assembly elections. If the initial reports from the ground and various inputs received are any indication then the Patnaik government of BJD is heading for a difficult election ahead. Largely due to the Orissa conundrum there are 19 battleground MP seats in this otherwise straightforward territory.

Southern Hemisphere

Southern Hemisphere Projections InputTerritory 3 is made up of the four southern states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. The common thread among these states are regional fiefdoms of different political formations and multi-cornered fights almost everywhere. Territory 4 is relatively stable with Karnataka and Goa having a direct fight between Congress & BJP and Maharashtra witnessing a battle between UPA and NDA.

Territory 3:

Just like Mamata Didi in WB, Amma is sweeping TN and the only political force that might actually stop her from winning all the seats is not the DMK led alliance or Congress but a possible NDA alliance of BJP, PMK, MDMK and the Kongu parties. If Captain Vijayakant joins the NDA then it could be even more formidable in more than a dozen seats. In AP everything is in a flux, but two factors will determine the eventual outcome; 1) Congress’s ability to create Telanagana before the end of the present Lok Sabha and then to leverage the issue in the elections favorably and 2) The proposed TDP-BJP alliance and its ability to become the dominant narrative to push an emerging Jagan to the corner. As of today a vast number of seats in this state are in the battleground category. In Kerala, as per all our inputs, the left-front is ahead as of now, but surprisingly BJP, if it performs well here, may end up helping the Congress alliance by dividing Hindu votes

Territory 4:

In Maharashtra NDA’s performance is directly proportional to local level compromises with MNS and inversely proportional to local level understandings with Sharad Pawar, for it is a well-known fact that both SS and BJP do have tactical understanding with Pawar and other powerful leaders of Congress and NCP in this state. As of today BJP-SS is ahead in the race. Karnataka, the one state where Congress was supposed to pick-up a rich haul of MPs is slowly but surely slipping out of the party’s hands and Siddramaiah is proving to be the Akhilesh Yadav of South India in terms of inculcating anti-incumbency at such a breakneck speed. BJP’s performance in the state depends on how hard BSY campaigns.

Heartland Zone:

It is divided into three Territories.

Heartland Projections Input

Territory 5:

It is essentially the East Punjab region where the contest is mostly between UPA-Congress and NDA-BJP. This was possibly the weakest link of BJP’s North Indian armada, but is fast turning into a happy hunting ground due to the unfolding political alignments of Punjab, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh. In Haryana the Jat vote is so heavily favoring the BJP that the party has decided to not form an alliance with the Chauthalas. In Punjab, Congress party is totally divided and may draw a naught this time. In Himachal Pradesh, with big corruption allegations against Virbhadra Singh, BJP is regaining the upper hand.

Territory 6:

As of today, BJP is the party to beat in Uttar Pradesh and even local SP and BSP leaders have given it far more seats than their own parties in our surveys. The big challenge now for the party is to get the local candidates right and to avoid internal sabotages. The one worrying aspect for BJP is that the local unit seems to be too busy in organizing Modi public rallies and not concentrating on polling booth level membership drive. SP seems to be out of race as of now and the contest is mainly between BJP and BSP. The one imponderable X factor in UP could be the alliance that Congress may formulate in the coming days.

In Bihar, the RJD-LJP-Congress alliance will be the leading force in a three-way fight and JDU may lose a large chunk of its vote-share. In Jharkhand, it is an extremely fragmented polity and BJP may benefit in a multi-cornered fight. Whereas in Uttarakhand, like elsewhere in the heartland, Congress is on back-foot.

Territory 7:

Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh make up this last territory totally dominated by the BJP which is poised to limit the Congress to a single digit tally in these 92 MP seats. All other political forces including BSP and AAP are not in contention in this region and in a direct fight BJP is prevailing over Congress.

Summary:

  • The real story of 2014 could be Congress, for all the wrong reasons. It is facing a historic decimation and a double digit MP seats haul looks like a very real possibility
  • BJP’s lead over Congress is huge as of now (135-59) and the only way that BJP can be stopped in 2014 is by a huge “secular” alliance (which looks unlikely).
  • Of the 180 Battleground seats, BJP is a strong contender in about 120 and is therefore poised to cross the 200 mark, whereas Congress is a strong contender only in about 50 odd seats which has put the party in a very vulnerable position
  • Although a dangerously fractured mandate is still possible, the third and fourth fronts are severely handicapped in North India which has made it BJP’s election to lose.

Broom Impact 2014

These days one of the favorite topics of debate in the TV studios is the impact of AAP on the LS polls. Many columnists have written astounding articles on how AAP would win a large number of urban LS seats and have even alluded to the possibility of Kejriwal being the next Prime Minister. This author himself gets inundated everyday on Twitter with questions about the possible impact of AAP on the next general elections. Thus an attempt has to be made to analyze this phenomenon, despite of electoral improbabilities (if you would have noticed, the 5Forty3 projections above have allocated 1 MP seat in all of 543 to AAP).

One possible theory doing the rounds among the armchair election analysts of Dilli is that AAP will have enough firepower in large number of urban seats to upset the Modi applecart of 2014. This theory has found so much of currency that a fairly large number of Congress enthusiasts and strategists also seem to be betting on this heavily. Is it really possible for AAP to do to India in 2014 what it did to Delhi in 2013? Before trying to answer that question in electoral terms, first let us examine the 6 obstacles that Kejriwal and co face in the run up to 2014;

  1. By aligning with the Congress party, Kejriwal stands in danger of foregoing the raison d’etre of AAP – the anti-corruption platform on which it was built and got all the nascent support. This issue may be swept under the carpet by an obliging Dilli media for the time being, but voter intelligence is always one step ahead of political punditry as has been proven for hundreds of times in the past.
  2. Lack of a governance model: The one glaring gap in the AAP armoury is the lack of a governance model, for they are very good at agitational politics but simply lack the skills to govern. This governance gap will become more and more apparent with each passing day as the greenhorn MLAs and Ministers of AAP try to rule the city state of Delhi
  3. Kejriwal’s inherent lack of ability to sustain any activity: This is a unique Kejriwal trait, for he is always seen to move on from one agenda to the next without bothering to fulfil the original promise. Ideally, AAP should have tried to give a model government to Delhi for the next 5 years and then tried to emerge as a national alternative, but they simply seem to lack the will to fight a long hauled battle and want to quickly move on to the next big thing.
  4. Media is a double edged sword: This has been proven again and again in the last 2 weeks when even picking a residence for CM and ministers ended up in a big tamasha. If this tamasha continues for any longer then Dilliwalas can forget whatever little governance they were expecting from a supposedly common man’s government.
  5. Too many contradictions: As such civil society groupings are essentially amorphous in nature, they create too many contradictions, especially now that AAP is trying to build a federated structure of civil society all over the place. For instance, a Prashant Bhushan advocating Kashmir policy could prove to be a death knell for a party that depends on urban middle class votes as its core constituency
  6. Unsustainable Volunteerism: Finding volunteers for a movement is a one-off event and can rarely be sustained for longer periods of time. What happened in Delhi elections cannot be repeated again with similar participation by volunteers – this was also witnessed in how the Anna Hazare movement fizzled out in late 2011.

If AAP and Kejriwal manage to break the shackles and still manage to sustain themselves up to May 2014 by crossing these 6 obstacles then they can possibly try and contest in a few of the urban pockets of India. Now let us try and analyze what probable impact would AAP have in such a scenario. This impact scenario can be divided into two parts;

A] In and around Delhi-NCR: Going by the assembly election result, AAP can be a strong contender in 3 LS seats – New Delhi, Chandni Chowk and East Delhi, but will the voters have same faith in the party for national elections is a moot question. Even otherwise, winning assembly elections with low margins on localized issues of corruption and governance is far easier than trying to position yourself as a national alternative. The one positive aspect could be that a hitherto doubtful fence-sitting voter may have more incentive now for a real alternative.

Delhi MapOne aspect that has been less discussed is that AAP’s performance drastically deteriorates as the geography of a constituency increases – a typical malaise of lack of workers and cadre who can sustain a political campaign in a wider geography. Thus most of AAP’s wins in Delhi assembly were limited to smaller inner constituencies whereas in the peripheral areas of Delhi it struggled. This is why AAP will find it even more difficult to perform in the adjoining areas of Haryana and West-UP as has been suggested by the easy analysis of various commentators.

In both Haryana and West-UP, the Jat vote plays a crucial deciding role and AAP will not find it easy to break into this with its broom act of anti-corruption crusade. Additionally, there is a communally polarized atmosphere in Western Uttar Pradesh in the wake of Muzaffarnagar riots and the AAP brand of politics will have very few takers in this region (the suggestion that Muslim voters may tilt towards AAP to defeat BJP is nothing but hilarious).

GhaziabadFor instance, Let us consider Ghaziabad LS seat which apart from being home to Arvind Kejriwal is also among the two MP constituencies along with Noida where AAP is supposed to have some traction in the May general elections. Of the 5 assembly segments that make up Ghaziabad, 2 are situated deep into Uttar Pradesh and three are adjoining the Delhi-NCR region – Ghaziabad, Loni and Sahibabad. For all practical purposes, AAP has to win at least two of these three assembly segments to have any realistic chance of putting up a fight in Ghaziabad, for it may find it difficult to make inroads in the other 2 assembly segments. Now consider this, Seelampur and Shadara are two assembly segments of Delhi that are right next to Loni assembly segment of Ghaziabad and in both these seats AAP either finished a distant 3rd or 4th.

So let alone making inroads into west-UP or Haryana, AAP may find it difficult to even put up a fight in the LS seats adjoining NCR. It will be an uphill task to bring in voters and convince them to vote for AAP in a national election because voters typically don’t like to waste their votes. At best AAP can try to amalgamate the non-dominant votes that are accrued by smaller parties and independents (In fact, AAP cut into BSP Vote-Share the most in Delhi assembly elections because it was easier to convince those voters than mainstream voters).

B] Rest of India: In the Heartland zone, outside Delhi-NCR, AAP is a nonstarter as it is unlikely to have any impact even in the urban centres of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh or Uttar Pradesh where caste-equations and well-entrenched political affiliations won’t be broken in a hurry. The other major impact of AAP is supposed to be in Southern Hemisphere – more specifically in the urban centres of Maharashtra (mainly Mumbai-Pune region) and Bangalore, for AAP can hardly have any effect on Dravidian politics of Tamil Nadu or on the Telangana imbroglio of Hyderabad.

Mumbai NorthLet us take the case of Mumbai; the two big names of AAP in Mumbai are in North Mumbai where Mayank Gandhi is expected to contest and South Mumbai where Meera Sanyal will be the AAP candidate. The fact of the matter is that in both these seats the Shiv-Sena-BJP vote will remain intact and will be broken only by MNS as seen in 2009. For instance if Mayank Gandhi manages to get an unlikely 75 thousand votes, then almost all of that vote would have come from Sanjay Nirupam’s (Congress) kitty of migrant North Indian labours, thereby helping BJP indirectly (Congress had barely managed to win this seat by less than 6k votes in 2009 despite MNS securing 1.5 lakh votes). Similar would be the case of Bangalore where Congress is hoping to win some seats this time around. Thus if at all AAP makes a foray south of Vindhyas, it is more likely to hurt Congress chances than BJP’s.

As for East India, AAP neither exists there, nor does it have an opportunity to spread for the foreseeable future. AAP may yet win a MP seat here or there in the 2014 LS election due to strong local candidate in multi-cornered fights, but to suggest that it would have a large-scale impact on urban LS seats is nothing but a pipedream.

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Author: Dr Praveen Patil

A story teller and aspiring writer with special interests in Indian electoral politics

34 thoughts on “The 2014 Electoral Map of India Part 2: Projections

  1. Dr Patil, You are amaizing writer. Hats off to you! I hope the mainstream news portal learn from your write up!!

  2. Thank you for a very informative article.

    A question for you, Dr. Patil, if I may. In Territory 5, you have mentioned the unfolding scenarios in Punjab, Haryana, and Himachal Pradesh. What, may I ask, is the unfolding scenario in Jammu and Kashmir? What is happening, precisely, in the two seats of the Jammu region and the 1 seat of the Ladakh region? Would be very happy to hear your reply.

    • BJP will win both seats in Jammu region. Hindus are in revolt against the Omar government, the Kishtwar riots and the subsequent re-induction of Sajjad Kitchloo as a minister, which has been like a slap in the face of the Hindu community.

      In the Kashmir region, PDP may well win. Remember that people here are angry over Afzal Guru.

      No idea about Ladakh.

    • J&K is a difficult state to track electorally. What is happening in Kashmir is anybody’s guess, but my own understanding is that PDP is now ahead of NC. As for Jammu, again difficult to project; from all the reports that we have received, it seems BJP is ahead, but then Congress and BJP both are vying for the same demographic here so it will be more of a momentum election where even the undercurrents from neighboring states also matter a lot (so we’ll have to watch out for signals from Pathankot etc.) Haven’t tracked Ladakh much, but my guess is that it would be a Muslim v/s Buddhist fight again.

  3. Lol bjp will win 5 seats in assam, 2 aiudf cong 5, bpf 1 Ind(karbi)1.

    • Out of curiosity, Manish-ji, which are the 5 seats you see the BJP winning in Assam? I assume you are giving Karbi Anglong to an independent, Kokrajhar to BPF, Dhubri and Karimganj to AUDF (or is it Barpeta you are giving to AUDF?). So – which 5 seats do you give to Cong, and which 5 do you give to the BJP?

  4. what albatross wants to prove is that every thing is not bad for BJP and good for Congress forgetting that a new force coming up in the milieu AAP is new party which will eat away all congress seats and make way for a spectacular win for BJP.BJP will lose 3% votes to AAP and Congress will lose 23% votes to AAP.Congress has abdicated all its vote share to AAP only with aim to defeat BJP and prevent NAMO being PM but a strong cyclone under current blowing all over India in favour of NAMO-BJP.The wave will give BJP a thunderous win over Congress and all 3rd and 4th front.In 2014 only 2 party will remain in fray BJP vrs AAP and all other regional parties vanish in thin air which will be good for country.AAP will change its attitude after it goes national as its Delhi policy will mar its reputation among youth .Now Youth mass is attracted for AAP for its quick action.AAP will get 100 seats and BJP 300 seats rest 43 seats will be distributed among all others.

  5. Very well analysed.Compliments Dr Patil.May be after EC announces the dates and parties finalise candidates, things will crystalise further.What is now certain is complete route of Congress – liberally helped by Left Liberal AAP – thus helping NAMO realise his mission of “CONGRESS MUKT BHARAT” – Waiting for your post, where you predict <50 seats for Congress.Also your prediction of Congress drawing blank in Punjab will mean that Mr Manish Tiwari will have to become congress party's spokes person – again.

  6. Last week I downloaded the full votes statistics of all the parliamentary constituencies of India for the 2009 Lok Sabha election. And I classified the constituencies as predominantly rural and non-rural. This being a coarse classification is not meant to be exact but approximate. My classification says that ~260 seats are somewhat non-rural and ~280 seats are predominantly rural. I name them urban and rural ignoring the deviations.

    Out of those 260 urban seats BJP/Congress tally is 60/130. Out of the 130 seats won by congress, 100 seats are where BJP is in contention. Out of 280 rural seats BJP/congress tally reads 50/80. I have further guesstimated that these two parties were in appreciable contention with each other in at most 200 rural seats and at most 200 urban seats. Rest of 140 seats are those where BJP and Congress are not fighting against each other if at all they are in contention.

    Based on the vote difference between BJP and Congress in 2009, I want to estimate the shape of the verdict in 2014 as a function of the swing of votes away from congress. I further guesstimate that of the votes which swing away from congress, at least 66% of those votes would accrue to BJP, esp in those seats where Congress had won last time directly against BJP. My analysis suggests that if there is a 5% swing away from Congress in those congress held 100 urban seats, close to 35 would fall into the lap of BJP only due to congress decay. I further assume that a proportionate votes would also swing away from other parties which increases BJP tally even more.

    My full analysis (in the case of -x% swing in congress votes) –

    for x = 3, BJP/Congress = 190/160
    for x = 4, BJP/Congress = 210/130
    for x = 5, BJP/Congress = 240/110

    Caveats and notes :

    1. All numbers shd be taken within a +/-15 error band.

    2. In case AAP contests some urban seats and have some impact, it would further enhance the seats of BJP as they effectively reduce the votes needed by BJP to win.

    3. My assumption of BJP being the prime beneficiary of all swings is a gut feeling which is corroborated by numerous opinion polls. I am assuming that the opinion polls truly reflect the truth that Modi is keenly awaited by majority of Indians.

    4. Based on the recent results, I am further assuming that voter turnouts would also increase and a disproportionate number of this increase would go to BJP.

    5. Where I lack information, I have assumed certain things as best as I can given the inputs I have.

    6. I should also make a disclaimer that I am a BJP supporter so those who want to find faults in my analysis due to this are welcome to pick holes.

    • A very good analysis my friend, but a little over-generalized with too many guesstimates, if I may say so. Primarily, am not comfortable with this classification of Urban-Rural MP seats, for it takes too much for granted. Most elections are localized in nature and sub-regional dynamics play a bigger role than urban-rural demographics (the reason why AAP may not succeed as prophesied by the editorial class). If you can also add more variables of sub-regional dynamics to your model, that could be more viable.

      • Kudos Dr. Praveen Sir. I have shared this site with all my friends. 2 People I follow daily on Twitter is Dr. Praveen Patil and Chinmay. The Chattisgarh Exit Poll (Bastar Region) is 100% Accurate even MSM failed to gauge. Once Again Kudos Sir

      • Grateful for your appreciation !

        I understand that my analysis is full of loopholes. It was done on a two sheet spreadsheet. And then some results extrapolated based on my inputs (or bias, for want of a better word).

        The following are the weak points in my analysis –

        1. The classification of urban-rural was done by me based on my memory. I would have liked to do a three way classification [city/urban/rural] based on census data and presence/absence some urban amenities/habits like newspaper readership, electricity consumption and vehicle ownership density. I couldn’t have possibly done this over one weekend.

        2. I looked at the entire election solely as a BJP/Congress fight. I would have liked to take care of the full data of votes cast for all the parties. This would entail a lot many spreadsheets and a lot many sheets in them.

        3. Your classification of India into 7 zones is a very convenient and doable exercise. Now that I know of this scheme, I would like to do the analysis for each zone separately … meaning ‘only’ seven spreadsheets, each with three sheets [city/urban/rural] + one sheet for the conclusions.

        4. The biggest drawback is my lack of information about the current situation in India. This would tell me how much of the extra votes (due to increased participation + first time young voters) I should allocate to different units/alliances. Also how much of the swing away from the dominant party (which I took to be congress) will also lead to a swing away from other parties and benefiting BJP (or any other party based on the real world data). In absence of all this crucial information, I have resorted to guesstimates which should not be considered reliable.

      • I would also like to add that my analysis suggested a better performance for Congress than I had otherwise estimated. This analysis only suggested to me the obvious truth (if ever it needed to told) that winning the 2014 lok sabha election will not be easy for BJP. My generous assessment indicates that to reliably cross 200 BJP must snatch a 4 % swing away from Congress as well as capture much of those votes. Far from easy.

        The trend of increased turnout makes it even more unpredictable. I am sure that BJP has enough analysts to consider all possibilities but they are also smitten by the illusion of their own wisdom else they wouldn’t be smug in 2004 and also in 2009. But there is one more parallel … that of 1989. BJP was, for some reason, so sure of it’s strength that it contested all the 540 seats and ended with a ostrich egg on it’s face.

        One thing that BJP must guard against is to take things for granted.

    • With AAP Arrival Congresss -Ve swing does not necessarily goes to BJP
      By all accounts BJP Best Bet is 200
      It should not have alliances in Key Battleground States where the Guranteed Leaders do not need BJP and hence
      BJP is well advised not to antagonize The Sure Non Congress Winners
      AIDMK in TN
      TMC in WB
      BJD in Odisha
      TRS in Telangana
      These 4 are definite to WIN 80+ seats and will go with National Winner or Best DEAL
      My Suggestion to BJP on AP and Telangana and Why is
      http://gandhipv.wordpress.com/2014/01/09/what-should-bjp-do-in-ap-and-telangana/

  7. Congress has made a miscalculation in promoting AAP. It has unilaterally disbanded its own army. Not only will AAP take votes from Cong and hand BJP a huge win in urban areas, BJP will win in rural areas because Congress has already told its cadre that they are going to sit out this election.

    • I doubt that it is a big miscalculation. If you leave out the big wigs of Congress in the rarefied environs of New Delhi, hardly anybody in the deep India (say in Chattisgarh) gives any weightage to TV chatterboxes. So Congress will not lose because of AAP, but because of itself. In all likelihood, AAP may find it difficult to retain deposits in 500 out of 543 seats of India. And recent ho-halla of kejriwal has not helped the matters terribly.

      • I think we are saying the same thing. Congress workers, whether urban or rural, definitely listen to the signals from high command in Delhi. And by promoting AAP, High Command has told Congress workers their party is in such dire straits, they are playing second fiddle to Kejriwal. All across the nation, whether urban or rural, Congress workers (already demoralized by results) now see no point even trying. This helps BJP.

      • BJP has to thank AAP just for 1 reason. AAP made BJP to take quicker and bold decisions. Else 2004 lathargic effect would have come in effect. Also one late decision of Projecting Dr. Harshavardhan earlier cost BJP a State

  8. This is a very scientifically analysed calculation and really impartial. Electronic media is simply boosting the image of AAP/Kejrival to increase their own TRP. Congress leaders are under a wrong impression that by helping AAp they can harm BJP/MODI. Their.Their wish is not going to be fulfilled by such unsubstantiated negative thing.I think AAP leaders have fallen in the trap and started dreaming high on pure imagination. Congress will lose election 2014 very severely.Readers may visit my blog:
    politicalindia2014.blogspot.com for further reading about loksabha election 2014.

  9. Let the election date is declared. I m sure BJP will get more than the MAgIC FIGURE 222. Congress will be completely Decimated in India. Congress Mukta Bharat is eminent by 2014. AAP will be just a party 4 COMMIES AND MEDIA MORONS.

  10. A very important point I want to make here about JAT Voters jATS are in large numbers in Haryana, Western Uttra pradesh, Punjab, Delhi, MP,Gujarat,Uttrakhand and Himachal Pradesh. Their population is around 5 crores. They voted in favour of Jantaparty in 1977 and Choudhary Singh became Deputy Minister under Moraji Desai,Then again they voted in favour of Vp Singh and Devi Lala became Deputy PM. Same is the case now in 2014 and Modi will be next PM without fail

  11. what if congress transfers its vote to AAP in massive scale as part of strategy in urban centers.

  12. Best Strategy for BJP in AP and TN is to go alone.
    Its really arrogant and risky strategy to strike alliances with Parties that are not in Striking Range and or sinking deeply.
    It should capitalize to fill the vaccum on its own and let the likely sweep staker Bring Big Post poll tally
    AIADMK and TRS are assured Big Winners in TN and TG
    Hope some better sense preavails and BJP stops the adventure Antogonizing the Big 2 from South for Post Poll alliance.

  13. Sharing my appeal to Modi and BJP so that they end their current Blunder of getting Tainted with Telangana Drohi Party that is identified in all regions as party of affluent Andhra Community and Family party
    https://gandhipv.wordpress.com/2014/01/07/appeal-to-narendra-modi-bjp-to-say-on-ap-re-organization-bi/

  14. Just wondered whether you factored in the remote reading&writing facilities of the imported EVM chips which can be manipulated before and after the voting. Why is the UPA government not allocating funds for voter receipts which is estimated to be around Rs.2500 Crores? Any thoughts on this please

  15. Modi must be extra careful while making speech. He should emphasize more on the future policy regarding employment, economical development,foreign policy and eradication of corruption. He should not waste his energy about Rahul/congress/Kejrival or all such seasonal politicians.

    click on the following link for further reading:
    http://politicalindia2014.blogspot.com/

  16. Dear Dr Patil,
    Kindly refer to a survey of metropolises published by Times of India Today [ 9.1.14] – “Predictably” survey reports that 44% of urban voters now prefer AAP over Congress & BJP though 56 % wants Modi as PM!
    My question to you is how will you factor in the effects of such biased surveys from now on till polling day?

  17. It is imperitive that debates of national leaders of main parties be arranged in a format like BIG FIGHT on NDTV in all main news channels and avoid precious prime time in “head breaking’ so called debates . It is important to spread political awareness in the youth to participate in the political process directly/indirectly. Following points may be discussesd and all political parties take astand in front of the people on national TV:—

    1 To contest from one seat only to avoid waste of money
    2 A sitting MLA should not contest for MP and vice- versa
    3 A charge sheeted person should not contest for any legislative post
    4 To amend the anti defection law to make it more meaning ful, a defected person cannot join the other party until next election
    5 Discussion on right ot vote to be made duty to vote, in this connection voting day not to be holiday.

    Let us view these points before i throw 20 othe r important points

    Naresh Saxena

  18. CHOOSING THE RIGHT MAN AS PRIME MINISTER OF INDIA USING WISDOM AND DISCRIMINTION
    many more Scams during UPA2 regime. Prime Minister of India is not working independently but working under the remotely controlled power center established by congress president and her son. There are parties like SP/BSP/RJD/JDU/NCP/DMK/AAP which are helping congress directly or indirectly to continue the rule of corruption and loot.
    Recent entrant is AAP which was originated against corruption prevailing during congress rule. But what an irony now AAP is fully under the grip of congress and trying its best to deter
    opponents to its fold. Voting for AAP is nothing but voting for congress. Same is the case of voting for SP/BSP/RJD/JDU/DMK/BJD/NCP/CPI/CPM/JMM/YSRC/KRC/LJP is nothing but voting
    India must use our voting power in a very wise and judicious manner. NDA must be given a chance to get rid of corrupt rule of UPA. We must rise above the narrow consideration of caste, language and religion. SP is not doing anything for Muslims except scoring their votes in bulk. Similarly BSP is not
    My countrymen awake and arise to the occasion and save the nation from anarchy and chaotic situation prevailing in the country.
    There is corruption prevailing in every field as proved by government agencies like CBI, CVC and CAG in case of 2G spectrum, Coal Scam, Common Wealth Games Scam, Railway Scam, VIP CHOPPER Scam and
    My countrymen awake and arise to the occasion and save the nation from anarchy and chaotic situation prevailing in the country. There is corruption prevailing in every field as proved by government agencies like CBI, CVC and CAG in case of 2G spectrum, Coal Scam, Common Wealth Games Scam, Railway Scam, VIP CHOPPER Scam and many more Scams during UPA2 regime. Prime Minister of India is not working independently but working under the remotely controlled power center established by congress president and her son. There are parties like SP/BSP/RJD/JDU/NCP/DMK/AAP which are helping congress directly or indirectly to continue the rule of corruption and loot.
    Recent entrant is AAP which was originated against corruption prevailing during congress rule. But what an irony now AAP is fully under the grip of congress and trying its best to deter Modi to become PM of India in 2014.What a magnetic power congress has got that it can attract its opponents to its fold. Voting for AAP is nothing but voting for congress. Same is the case of voting for SP/BSP/RJD/JDU/DMK/BJD/NCP/CPI/CPM/JMM/YSRC/KRC/LJP is nothing but voting for congress and continuation of corrupt rule congress. Another very wrong prejudice created in the minds of dear Muslim brothers that BJP/MODI is against them. This is not true and you can see that there are no communal riots during BJP rule states or at the center.
    We as citizens of CHOOSING THE RIGHT MAN AS PRIME MINISTER OF INDIA USING WISDOM AND DISCRIMINTION

  19. I can not comment on rest of India, but in Bihar your analysis is correct. JDU will be a distant third, and RJD may win 20 seats. For all their faults Bihar voters are very sensitive about public education specially upto higher secondry level. The state has no minerals, no business houses and largly agricultural economy, at the same time 90% of population has either no land or land not worth depending upon. In this scenario, voters know, only education is their way out of acute proverty. Upper casts have traditionally sent their children to private schools, lowers casts and OBCs have been largly dependent on government schools.

    I went home recently, and my taxi driver (a Nitish voter) was not happy with Nitish’s initiatives in education. He told me: “My nephews have studied from gov. school and have govt. jobs. Now the teachers come in class with Guthka in their mouths.” Lalu understood this and therefore never played with education sector (In fact went to extent of asking BPSC to conduct Primary Teacher recruitments). Nitish will find it hard to mark double digits. For me it would be sad, a BJP-Nitish combine would have swept Bihar. After 20 years Bihar had a chance of having friendly government at center. Nitish has squadered that away.

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