Five Forty Three

Revolutionizing Indian Election Analysis

The 2014 Electoral Map of India Part 1

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Twelve Crore voters, if they decide to vote similarly, would determine the fate of India in 2014. Yes, as low as less than 10% of India’s total population hold the key to the future of a nation of more than 1.25 billion people. Such is the mathematical construct of our Westminster system of first-past-the-post democracy that a political party can rule this country by just about managing to get 12 Cr votes. Yet every day we get to hear such banal intellectual discourse based around secular definitions of Majority and Minority. In the real world of Indian elections, the ultimate minorities are the group of voters who actually end up electing a government!

Congress Votes IndiaBJP Votes IndiaThis figure of 12 Cr is absolutely the key to getting anywhere beyond the 200 mark for any single political party in 2014. Current estimates suggest that a total of 73 Crore voters would be eligible to participate in the 2014 elections. Assuming a voter turnout of roughly 60% or about 44 Cr, either of the two national parties; Congress and the BJP; should get closer to about 12 Cr votes if a stable government is to be formed. Past electoral data suggests that stable Congress governments of the last 3 decades have always been possible when the party has been closer to the 12 Cr mark. Although the two BJP led governments of 1998 and 1999 came at a much lower threshold of about 9 Cr votes and 180 LS seats, the party would need to touch the same 12 Cr mark to have a safe mandate in 2014. If either of the two national parties’ fail to get close to 12 Cr votes, then 2014 would see a fragmented verdict wherein the third and fourth front space would then be open to temporary maneuvers. Thus at the outset, looking at the past voting data, the path for Congress to retain about 12 Cr votes should be much easier than say for the BJP to accrue 4 Cr more votes in 2009. But the electoral landscape in India is neither so simple nor so straightforward.

In order to understand how exactly the 2014 election is likely to shape, 5Forty3 has decided to release the 2014 electoral map, a first of its kind exercise in the Indian election arena which will help us gauge the direction of different political undercurrents. For the express purpose of 2014, India can be classified into three zones – The Heartland Zone, The Southern Hemisphere and East India.

2014 Electoral Map Of India

These three zones of the electoral chessboard of India represent the three political quadrants; The Heartland Zone dominated by BJP, The Southern Hemisphere being the Congress citadel and East India representing the third political force of India. Of course there will be minor zonal overlaps, but in broad electoral strokes this chessboard holds good. Each of the political force has to hold on to its quadrant and try to penetrate the enemy zone to win the battleground of 2014.

Heartland Zone

The Heartland Zone is essentially what is referred to as North India plus Gujarat. This is the region where BJP has been strong traditionally and Congress has been in almost terminal decline since the 90s. In fact, Congress is in power in only 4 small states accounting for a paltry 25 out of 272 LS seats (less than 10%) of this region. BJP, on the other hand, has won 4 major states (including Gujarat as of December 2012) in the last one year and is experiencing a general upswing in the entire region. In the run-up to the 2014 polls, The Heartland Zone is one geography where there is a massive anti-incumbency against the central government as witnessed in the recently concluded assembly elections of four states in which the Congress party was almost completely whitewashed. This is also the region where the NaMo wave is at its strongest as we have seen time and again in his hugely successful public meetings attended by almost unprecedented crowds.

Haertland 272 quadrantsOut of the 272 parliamentary seats in the heartland zone about 136 will witness a direct fight between the two national parties, in 86 seats BJP is fighting against the regional parties and Congress is contesting the regional parties in about 20 seats while there are 30 seats where both Congress and BJP are both not in contest. Essentially, Congress has a pool of 156 MP seats, BJP has 222 and regional parties have a maximum pool of 136 MP seats to win from.

The advantage for BJP is obviously due to the larger pool of LS seats it has to choose from, but the problem for the party is that this is the zone from where close to 75% of the party MPs would be coming from, so it needs a huge success ratio of practically winning 3 out of 4 seats it is contesting. Congress, which had performed reasonably well in this region in 2009 is staring at a complete rout, but the advantage for the party lies in its increasing insignificance in heartland which gives it tremendous flexibility to pick up regional allies. Regional parties throw the biggest challenge to BJP in this zone, except in Punjab and Haryana where they are in a symbiotic relationship with the party.

BJP: In 2014, BJP needs a vote swing of 6 to 9% in its favor to achieve its target of winning 3 out of 4 seats that it is seriously contesting. Will Narendra Modi be able to bring such a major swing in this region? Going by the results of the recently concluded assembly elections, he seems to be on course to achieve this but has a huge task of getting the local flavours right. North India usually has a latent national vote in the LS elections (as was witnessed last time in 2009 when Congress performed beyond its means), which should help Modi and BJP in a classical sense. The key factor for the party would be its battle for the OBC votes with regional parties to create a united spectrum of Hindu vote. The other important factor for the party is how well it is able to sell its “good governance model” to the impoverished voters of the heartland. Its big worry is a united opposition.

Congress: The party is definitely losing 5%+ vote share in this region, but it needs to spread that lost vote-share wisely by allying with regional parties. Congress party has two aces up its sleeve – 1) to prime its MAD – Muslim-Adivasi-Dalit coalition and 2) try and ally with as many regional parties as possible. Its biggest drawback is the 10 year anti-incumbency and all the public anger as a result of huge corruption scams and economic mismanagement manifesting into high inflation. In the heartland, Congress should fight the election not to win, because it cannot win in any case, but to limit BJP’s margins, so it has to find allies at any cost. To a large extent, BJP’s performance in the heartland will depend on how well Congress manages the regional parties.

Regional Parties: The obvious dichotomy of different state level regional parties is the biggest stumbling block for them to put up a united face; SP-BSP, JDU-RJD, JMM-JVM etc. The combined vote-share of the regional parties may marginally decline by 1 or 2% as has been evident in the recently concluded assembly elections in the four states, but even if they manage to increase the vote-share it would be essentially redistributed amongst themselves and from the unattached vote-share. The key for the regional parties in heartland is to either form a front to prove their relevance to the national elections or to align with one of the national parties. This is one of the primary reasons why Mayawati is even considering to have an alliance with the Congress party, for the regional parties of the heartland have now discovered that there is a powerful “national vote” in the region which has gained greater weightage in 2014 as compared to 2009.

Key battleground elements: 1) The national vote, 2) Narendra Modi and 3) Anti-BJP alliances

Southern Hemisphere 

Southern 182 quadrantsThe Southern Hemisphere is essentially South India plus Maharashtra and is generically classified as the Congress quadrant, for this has been a traditional Congress stronghold. Now the southern hemisphere is completely fragmented among various small regional and sub-regional political parties due to the general decline of the Congress party. BJP has limited presence in this region and needs alliances to leverage the popularity of its prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi. The major contests in this region are among regional parties of the third and fourth fronts, which is manifested in the fact that both the national parties are in a direct contest only in 47 of the 182 seats. This is the one region where a maximum number of seats see multi-cornered fights due to political fragmentation.

Congress and UPA: The Congress party had a huge 15% lead over its nearest rival in this region in 2009, but this time in 2014, Congress is in a precarious situation due to a split in the party and the collapse of an alliance. There is a real possibility of a 6 to 9% swing away from the Congress party which could potentially bring the total tally of Congress MPs in the 16th Lok Sabha perilously close to the double digit mark. The party has a very difficult task of bridging alliances and building new coalitions to stay afloat in South India. Keeping UPA intact in Maharashtra and rebuilding UPA in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh are the twin challenges that Congress is facing in the run-up to 2014. The party’s performance would be largely decided by how it manages to overcome these two challenges. Congress and UPA need to get anywhere between 70 to 90 seats in this region to have a realistic shot at government formation in 2014, or else a long spell on the opposition benches awaits them.

BJP and NDA: BJP has always been a North Indian party and only has pockets of influence in this region. The best chance for the party to have an impact outside its strength areas is to try and contest the metro-urban LS seats by leveraging brand NaMo and using the AAP model of volunteers, especially of the internet variety. BJP needs to retain its vote-share of around 15% here, but may find it very difficult to repeat Karnataka of 2009. Getting the NDA quotient right in AP, TN and Maharashtra is going to be extremely crucial for the eventual BJP performance and it would also test the skills of Narendra Modi as an alliance builder. The challenge for the BJP-NDA would be about offsetting the obvious losses in Karnataka by winning elsewhere in south India.

Third Front & Fourth Front: These are loose terms used for various political groupings that are amorphous in nature and keep changing in contours with the passage of time. As of now third front consists of the Left, ADMK, JDS and YSRC etc., whereas the Fourth Front is composed of DMK, DMDK, TRS and others. Together these two fronts commanded a respectable 21% vote-share in the 2009 elections and may increase that substantially this time due to a swing away from the Congress party. Even in terms of seats, these groupings are likely to emerge with the largest haul of MPs from South India in the 16th Lok Sabha. This is the big contradiction of today; while the fragmented north Indian polity is stabilizing, the earlier stable south Indian polity is splitting up. Unlike North India, southern hemisphere doesn’t have a “national vote” even in the LS polls and witnesses localized elections along different sub-regional fault lines.

Key Battleground Elements: 1) The shape of UPA & NDA, 2) The resolution of inter-party contradictions among different fronts and 3) BJP-NDA’s ability to leverage brand Narendra Modi

East India

East India 89 quadrantsEast India, composed of Orissa, West Bengal and the seven sisters of North-East, is a region where both the national parties are absent from vast swathes of geography and is dominated by regional players and the third front. The third and fourth fronts have a big pool of 71 out of 89 MP seats to win from, whereas Congress has 52 and BJP a paltry 11 seats from where it can emerge victorious. East India is also unique in the fact that caste based voting blocks are much less prevalent if not non-existent in this part of the country unlike the other two zones. Another trait that East India shares with the Southern Hemisphere is the absence of a “national vote” and instead it votes on regional, sub-regional aspirations and differentiations. Congress brand of politics used to provide the alternate platform for the national vote in this part of India but it is again in secular decline across the region, while Left-Front has also lost a lot of ground as the third pole of Indian politics. Thus 2014 is likely to be dominated by a regional vote in East India.

Third Front: Mainly constituted by the Left, BJD and other smaller players of North East, this grouping had a massive 11% lead over its nearest rival in 2009. This time the Third Front is likely to see a 3-5% swing away from it mainly due to the decline of the left and only partially due to the BJD’s anti-incumbency. The Third Front is a strong contender in about 63 seats here and would be lucky if it could win closer to 50% of those.

Congress: May spring a surprise in this region by producing a contrarian result from rest of India. Although the party is now on a weaker wicket in West Bengal, it seems to be in an upswing in Orissa (especially among Adivasi & Dalit votes) and ahead of the pack in Assam. There is a possibility of an overall 1-2% swing in favor of the party in this region despite loss of vote-share in WB. Come 2014, this could be the one saving grace for a beleaguered Congress party leadership.

Fourth Front: This is mainly formed by Trinamool Congress (TC) which cannot go with either the Left or the Congress in 2014, but we have also added the Vote-Share of AUDF to this block. It is generally expected to gain a 2-3% swing in its favor in 2014 and perform reasonably well. The amorphous nature of Fourth Front gives it post-poll flexibility but faces restrictions in the pre-poll scenario due to inherent regional contradictions and the risk of antagonizing vote-banks.

BJP-NDA: BJP has very limited presence in this region and also very few possibilities of forming formidable alliances. The two possible NDA allies are AGP and a Sangma led NCP; BJP’s performance in this region largely depends on how it can create an NDA with these two allies. In any case, whatever the party or the alliance wins here would be a bonus, for this is one region where Narendra Modi may have no impact whatsoever.

Key Battleground Elements: 1) The Muslim and Adivasi vote, 2) The extent of decline of the Left and 3) The redrawing of Hindu-Muslim fault lines after Assam riots

[P.S: These numbers are true as of today and will be updated in the run-up to 2014 as and when ground situations keep developing]

In the next part we will further divide these three zones into 7 territories in order to have a more deeper analysis of the unfolding electoral scenario and also make projections for different territories based on a unique survey experiment conducted for the first time in India.

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Author: Dr Praveen Patil

A story teller and aspiring writer with special interests in Indian electoral politics

29 thoughts on “The 2014 Electoral Map of India Part 1

  1. Interesting read. One comment about the bar charts on Congress and BJP votes — wouldn’t it make more sense if the bar lengths were proportional to votes in the Congress chart. It appears to make a wrong impression that unlike the BJP’s, the Congress’s vote-share varied by large amounts in those elections.

  2. Excellent analysis. Looking forward to part 2.

  3. So ultimately you have put both the Congress and BJP as having a pool of ~300 seats to contest. My analysis of this was a little different. I had given BJP a potential 250 seats to contest and Congres a potential 350.The seats where either BJP or Congress is in contention is ~400. A NaMo wave would be determined by how much out of 250 the BJP can win. An anti-NaMo wave (?) would be determined by how much of the 350 Congress can garner. Of course, I am assuming that NaMo is the biggest issue of this election and in these 380-400 seats, it is almost a referendum.

    Since such referendums are primarily decided by how much enthusiasm the voters have for the “subject”, it follows that the primary objective of the BJP should be to increase voter turnout. And the primary objective of the Congress should be to make this as uninteresting election as possible.

    Of the two, Congress has the easier job. It simply has to stop talking about Modi. Make this the most boring election ever. Behave almost as if Modi doesn’t exist. If Congress loudmouths can avoid this irresistibly self-destructive behavior, BJP/Modi has a huge problem at their hands. And if my analysis is accepted, then Congress should also refrain from naming anybody as a PM candidate which tickles public imagination/indignation/curiosity/interest in either negative or positive way. And no playing up of Kejriwal/AAP either as it only serves to increase the interest of public in the election. No promotion of Rahul either or of any outside person (Nilekani/Tharoor/etc). The most boring person in Congress is MMS and Sonia Gandhi. But MMS has the corruption bogey. So the only option for Congress is to NOT declare a PM as well as categorically declare that MMS and Rahul would NOT be a PM candidate. This leaves only Sonia Gandhi as the possible choice but not naming her would keep the voter interest and possibly the turnout low.

    If Congress can pull the above impossible feat and get some regional equation right, I think Modi can kiss his aspiration a final goodbye. As far as Modi is concerned , 2014 is his first and last chance to get to Delhi for a referendum cannot be conducted a second time especially after losing the first one.

    So Modi/BJP must keep up the attack at fever pitch and keep sniping at Congress constantly. But this risks fatigue so they must find new and innovative ways to drum up the campaign. They must have high creativity to engage all section of the voters. Sometimes they must play up free/liberal market economics and sometimes dole/freebies without sounding like a hypocrite … with giving the impression of being supremely pragmatic. Easier said than done. And sometimes they will have to play up Hindu antecedents and sometimes don a pious secular mantle — no problem if it sounds hypocritical as no one expects otherwise. All this is just to keep the voter interests alive. BJP also has a huge Muslim problem at hands.

    From all the interaction with Muslims I have had, it seems that mere presence of Modi has made this election supremely interesting for them so they will certainly come out to vote, come hell or high water. And it is here that AAP comes as a tool. It is very advantageous for Modi to have AAP to confuse the Muslims as well those who are anyway less inclined to vote for BJP. And BJP should stop wasting it’s time on talking to the Muslim electorate. It is totally futile. It is better to be branded communal than to lose the election.

    For the non-Muslims, BJP must have a very creative strategy. Modi has a exceedingly tough task. He must avoid putting all his eggs in one basket, be it social media, volunteerism, youths, women, high/low/mid castes, regional/national undercurrents or any other factor. He must engage all the sections with equal attention. I shudder to think how he will manage this. He has only 250 potential seats.

    • Fairly accurate analysis. I feel the other (now 2nd rung of) Central BJP leaders have failed the party. 2014 is/was a Golden chance for them to reach 215-225 on their own & form a fairly stable Govt. But in the last 10 yrs they have not done the ground level field work/agitation/activism. These leaders – Sushma, Anant, Venkaiyyah Naidu, Yashwant Sinha, Rajnath & the biggest letdown Advani have not done the necessary hard work/ground work. In fact they have arm twisted/check mated regional leaders with mass support like – BSY, Uma Bharti etc. Whatever upswing is there is due to NaMo & other hard working regional leaders like Sushil Modi, Vasundhara, Shivraj Chouhan. BJP central leaderships abject failure at cultivating/nurturing successful, dependabler & popular leaders at regional level will script the story of missed opportunity for NaMo. I feel BJP will fail to cross 200 & then its totally an uphill & unlikely task.

      I wonder what BJP did all these 10 yrs ?

      Maharastra – Neither Gadkari nor Munde seems to enjoy a wide appeal/popularity.

      Karnataka – Ray of hope in S. India – all but lost due to acute mismanagement, inability to take tough decisions at right time.

      U.P. – Ever since Kalyan Singh’s decline they dont have a popular OBC leader. Either Rajnath & other leaders should have spread their sphere of influence to a wider political constituency or nurtured an OBC leader who would get along with BJP’s traditional upper caste votes.

      Bihar – Sushil Modi is finally getting his due & should be nurtured to develop a national level image. Rudy/Ravishsnkar Prasad are not mass leaders & Yashwant Sinha has not proved capable of developing further appeal.

      Jharkhand – A strong tribal face would help BJP even in bordering districts of Bengal & CG in terms of perception of being tribal friendly.

      CG – needs immediate attention & stock checking.

      In the long run BJP shuld understand that India is becoming more & more federal as non performance of Govts leads to people’s apathy/hostility & regional players can exploit the regional/local sentiment (caste identity -UP/Bihar, language & parochial identity- Orissa, TamilNadu etc). Very likely in future in Chattisgarh a strong satnami/tribal leader will raise the card of Chhattisgarhi asmita/culture n cultivate a distinct bloc/constituency. A party like BJP should factor this in at local level n allow strong local leaderships to emerge employing the Lowest Common Denominator at state level & then blending it with the Highest Common Factor of NaMo’s leadership/Congress corruption etc. Only then can it gain strength in future.

    • A good read but most suggestions are hypothetical. Be it Kangres or BJP they know what they are doing during election time,.Some time wrong, some time right depending upon the results.. For BJP it would be better to attract muslim voters than to confuse them as suggested by you. Take example of Gujrat itself, the 2002 riot effected state, where 32% muslim votes polled in favor of BJP in 2012 state Assembly election. During 2007 election figure was around 11%.

      • In an ideal world it is of course better to attract rather than confuse. But for most non-Gujarati Muslims, the hatred for Modi is visceral. This is especially true in south and east and possibly UP too. When I see their hyper reactions to Modi, I feel it is not worth talking to them. They will be converted the same way Gujarati muslims were won over … by performance and governance … their mistrust of Modi is so high that no matter what he says, it is seen as one more evidence of his perfidy.

        And I am not advocating that BJP actively confuses the Muslims. I am advocating firing from AAP’s shoulders. They are readymade for such a hack job. Puffed up with self importance … and thinking of them as messiahs … such ppl are the easiest to defeat.

    • Now also Congress is no where in scene in south India,East India,North India,West India.It has few seats in Haryana Himachal UK and karnatka which will vanish this time under wave of NAMO.Now wave of NAMO blowing across whole India and it cant a single seat in any state.It will get few seats upto 7/8 seats from NE only.It wll be limited to 9 seats at best.Karnataka which gave a satte lead to congress will be recaptured by BJP after recent polcies of Congress govt to appease muslims at the cost of Hindus.Andhra was any way gone case by Telengana division.UK Haryana HP are weak and now it will lose all these three sattes.So Congres is a gine case.Only factor is that it propped up AAP t garner its core votes of Muslims and tribals.

  4. Good piece on electoral 2014. Look forward for part2.
    However looks that AAP & Yedurappa factor will have more coverage in upcoing parts.

  5. I feel many BJP rookies are excited about AAP and kejriwal. They hv lost focus and are now training their guns on AAP. Take a break. Kejriwal is more self-destructive than Rahul Gandhi. Instead of attacking AAP, BJP shd bait them. Play up some subtle Hindu overtones and wait for AAP counter response … it will certainly take the form of appeasing some mulla or other. Based on this BJP will know how much to play up Hindu notes (and it could be something very innocuous sounding like asking Amit Shah to conduct an election rally in Delhi, where he will just talk about Gujarat’s development all while sporting a huge tilak … LOL) and get the AAP to attack BJP.

    If BJP is successful in giving a Muslim tint to AAP … what could be better ?

  6. Please indulge me to analyze 2014 in the terminology of Dr. Patil. From what I gather of various inputs (and I have really limited means, have done no field work) these are my predictions as of 31st dec 2013. All numbers are approximate.

    1. Heartland – BJP (39% votes, 180 seats). Congress (30% votes, 60 seats). Others including possible NDA & UPA constituents (30 seats).

    2. Southern hemisphere – BJP (20% votes, 35 seats). Congress (30% votes, 45 seats). Others including possible NDA & UPA constituents (100 seats).

    3. Eastern hemisphere – BJP (10% votes, 5 seats). Congress (20% votes, 20 seats). Others (60 seats).

    4. NDA constituents are likely to fetch 55 extra seats wheres UPA constituents may get 30 extra seats.

    5. The final tally reads :: NDA = 275 seats. UPA = 155 seats.

    Minhaz merchant, in his analysis has given 235 seats to the BJP, which I consider to be a little extra optimistic. It would take superhuman effort from Modi to reach or cross that level. And even Godly effort may not take the BJP past 250. Mr. Merchant also gives Congress a paltry 90 seats, which again presumes a very very strong Modi wave.

    The strategy BJP should adopt is as follows –

    1. Do a few Modi tours of eastern hemisphere and leave it at that. Depute the task totally to either regional leaders or upcoming leaders like Shahnawaz (esp in Bengal and Assam). Provide all the organizational muscle of BJP and RSS for these states but do not preoccupy Modi too much with this region.

    2. Concentrate a lot on southern hemisphere, to build allies as well as to attract voters. Do a lot of Modi rallies but also do a lot of independent rallies of local leaders like Kishan Reddy and Venkaiah Naidu. Depute Karnataka to Yeddy to a very large extent. Deploy Modi extensively in Maharashtra as regional leaders are not very effective. MH also has the advantage to giving a high visibility to Modi’s rallies.

    3. Divide the time equally between the heartland and southern hemisphere till the elections come very near. But towards the last 4 weeks of campaign, do carpet bombing of the heartland … almost concentrate totally on the heartland. In UP, BJP needs to play up the hindu sentiment quite a lot and thanks to the media, mere presence of Amit Shah is sufficient to do just that.

    For BJP, there is no time to be lost. Hit the ground running from today. All congress have to do is to make this election a dull affair … that is the easiest thing to do in the world … if only worthies like Diggy rajah can stop becoming Bhasmasur. If Congress plays it’s moves smartly (and that is easier said than done), BJP has no chance.

    • I come from Andhra Pradesh and can say that Kishan Reddy and Venkaiah Naidu cannot attract any votes. BJP cannot win a single MP seat on it’s own.
      The best approach is to tie up with Telugu Desam Party(TDP)
      Chandrababu Naidu is desperate for a tie up with BJP and it can be a marriage of convinience for both in Andhra Pradesh.
      Kishan Reddy and other Telangana leaders are opposed to an alliance with the TDP as they think they can get a lot of vote sin Telangana. I believe that to be wishful thinking.
      A tie up betweenTDP and BJP will benefit TDP to win MP seats but this will help BJP to form a government at the centre.
      Local BJP leaders should not expect allocation of a high number of MP and MLA seats for their candidates. BJPs stength in Andhra Pradesh is limited. It can prevent Congress by aligning with TDP
      2 MP seats and 10 MLA seats are the most BJP should expect when seats are shared with TDP.

      • YES Both VN and KR are duds.Now BJP needs a strong leader like T.Raja Singh who can enthuse youth mass and BJP allies with TDP and YSRC to defeat Congress full and final.

      • I agree with you that KR and VN are far from being trump card. KR has the added disadvantage of coming from “beta-beti” quota, but he makes it up with his dedication. VN is an excellent speaker with a zany sense of humor and can hold his own in any forum. He has the disadvantage of being cut off from his own roots. If he sheds his lazy habits of sitting in Delhi and roams in AP, he can build his constituency quite effectively. He has the potential of becoming a CB Naidu if only he works on it. So it is not true that these two are duds. But for 2014, BJP must ally with TDP and invest long term capital in some local leaders … be they KR or VN, I hardly care.

        BTW, I am based in Hyderabad but ethnically a heartlander 🙂

    • excellent .i m pleasantly surprised wd ur analysis n knowledge.

  7. Good analysis. Will wait for your write ups all the way upto the LS2014 elections results. Despite such a good analysis, the final outcome can always throw a surprise. The surprise can be Modi wave getting generated to bring BJP 272+ on its own winning a few seats even from unthinkable areas, OR the surprise can even be a negative one for NDA falling short of even 150 due to a last minute ganging up of anti-Modi forces. Anyway, next 5 months are very cruicial with even a single day every day counting.

  8. Very neatly you summrised the Who India. Very good writing skills.However I have question:-
    You sai above that 12 Crore votes are enough to get 200+ seats. is it true? Congress got 12 crore Votes in 2009 but now Vote count would have also increased. Is not it?

  9. An Excellent analysis, Only one point – that 12 cr figure. In 2009 kangres has crossed 11 cr mark but could reach to around 200 seats. In 2014 there is a considerable increase in total votes. Moreover there is a big up trend in voting percentage, seen during recently state Assembly elections.

  10. Dear Patil,

    I recently came across your blog. I have to say that your analysis of the state elections is by far the best I have come across any medium. Your post on heartland secrets was an eye opener. Being a educated middle class citizen myself, I am ashamed that we are letting down the country by voting for AAP brand of politics.

    Coming to this post, excellent again. The framework is so simple and beautiful yet comprehensive at the same time. Looking forward for your future blogs.

  11. Mr. Patil
    Interesting Analysis.

    I believe Congress party will perform poorly compared to 2009 in the Southern Hemisphere in 2014 elections.

    Andhra Pradesh –
    A total disaster mismanaging the Telangana issue. People from Andhra region will not vote for Congress in 2014.
    This region has 25 MP seats and Congress does not have willing Candidates at this time. It will be lucky to win 1 seat.
    Telanagana region has 17 MP seats and Congress can win 8-10 seats here because UPA initiated the bill for a seperate Telangana. The regional TRS party will not align with Congress before polls as it wants to see who the winner will be at the national level in 2014. It will make a decision after the polls on alliance rather than before the polls.
    But if the TRS aligns with Congress, they can win 11-13 seats together.

    It is rumoured that Congress has an underhand deal with YSRCP in the Andhra regionand hence Y.S.Jagan Mohan Reddy was released from Jail penfing the cases with CBI and Enforcement Directorate.
    There is no declared pre poll aliance between YSRCP and Congress. It is only a rumoured under hand deal.

    If the voters do not mind this unholy lliance or do not believe this then there is a chance that YSCRCP will bag 10-14 seats.

    But YSCRCP may ditch tthe Congress after elections if Congress is not near the target to form a government and may decide to extend support to BJP from the outside.

    Congress will be routed in the Andhra region.

    Congress can expect a minimum of 8-10 seats(Telangana) and a maximum of 18-24 seats with support from other parties like TRS and YSRCP overall in Andhra Pradesh.

    Karnataka –
    Congress rules the state and I expect them to perform better here than any other state in the South.
    BJP made a lot of mistakes when ruling the state and it is fresh in peoples mind.
    But they would not blame Narendra Modi for it and may be forgiving.
    Congress will attempt to win least half of the 28 seats in Karnataka provided they select good candidates.
    Former CM Yediurappa is back in BJP fold and it may help BJP.
    The urban areas of Bangalore, Mysore and Mangalore will help BJP.

    Congress can expect a minimum of 8-10 seats and a maximum of 11-12 seats.
    But if NaMO wave takes off , BJP can turn the table and make soldi gains and win up to 20 seats.

    Tamilnadu –
    Congress can kiss good bye here as they never had a base and managed all along by allying with DMK or AIADMK.
    DMK has stated that they will not support Congress.
    AIADMK will not support Congress either.
    Congress will be able to win a single seat on their own but highly unlikely.

    Maximum 1 seat can be won by Congress.

    Kerala –
    Kerala has 20 MP seats and ruled by Congress/UDF.
    There are a multitude of parties here with a strong communist base.

    But there is an anti incumbency factor against the Congress/UDF government.
    A lot of discontent is brewing in the UDF coalition and within Congress.
    The BJP does not have a lot of support but may benefit in 2014 due to the NaMo factor in a few seats.
    The left parties/communists appear to be benifitting the most in 2014 and they will be aiming at a 3rd Front.

    Congress wil be lucky to win 5-8 seats.
    BJP may get 2-3 seats
    Communists may benefit more if BJP cannot turn the anti incumbency in to her favour.

    Maharashtra –
    I would not treat Maharashtra as a Southern state but since you have put it in the Southern Hemisphere, I will treat it so for now.
    There are 48 MP seats here.
    There is anti incumbency factor here and the BJP has a growing base and urban voters are leaning towards NaMO/BJP.
    There are a lot(24-27) of Urban MP seats in Maharashtra. It could be to BJPs advantage provided the AAP does not slice in to the urban voter bank.
    The ShivaSena plays a crucial role and is a partner of the BJP and may go to polls together with BJP in 2014.
    Congress is at a disadvantage in Maharashtra also. The have NCP asa partner but NCP may ditch Congress in 2014.
    Congress may win a minimum of 9-11 seats and a maximum of 12-14 seats.

    In the Southern hemisphere, Congress may win up to 50 seats on the average

    • BJP will win 2-3 seats in Kerala ????? What are you smoking?

      Hopeless local leadership….massive disenchantment with both Congress and left havent been built to BJP’s advantage.
      Even if the committed RSS cadre and party workers are charged up – there is no mass base or a class or caste group BJP can influence .

      Minority vote will stay with congress and Neutral/Hindu votes will go for left…. 15-5 for Left vs Congress in Kerala.

  12. Congress is totally spent force in all states.It has been relegated to 4th place.Now fight will be between BJP vrs AAP.AAP is coming with a dedicated cadre of youth mass who wants quick action and are lured by quick action of AK.BJP will be 1st,AAP will be 2nd ,Regional parties will be 3rd and Congress will be in 4th position.Congress visualized this situation so they now propped up AAP with funds and voters diversion >BJP NDA will win 275 seats,AAP will win 100 seats,Regional parties (3rd and 4th front) 100 seats and congress UPA will be below 70 seats in all.Congress UPA will break soon after defeat in 2014 and all its allies will desert congress blaming its policy and start a new group with AAP+Regional parties.Some parties who are friendly with Modi will come to NDA join the alliance and will be inducted in the ministry.AIADMK,TDP,AGP,BJD,TMC,MNS will join NDA and will get ministries.

    • Sorry boss. Congress may be a spent force but they are intimately connected at the local level. If you saw and followed the see-saw battle in CG, you would know that you are out of your depth.

      Elections are a very different affair from twitter wars. If online space was so relevant, there is practically no state in India where BJP would win less than 75% of the votes. Keep your ears on the ground, you may miss the train coming from behind.

  13. I think the alliances that the BJP is forging in South India (TDP in AP, smaller parties in TN) will work to its advantage. AAP’s effect will vary from state-to-state; it will likely help Modi in Gujarat, MP and Rajasthan, but hurt him in Delhi, Karnataka and Maharashtra. I doubt AAP will be the third largest party, as some are predicting. It will probably take votes from all parties rather than just the BJP disproportionately, so its effect may end up being diluted.

    My predictions:

    http://desipoliticaljunkie.wordpress.com/2013/12/29/taking-stock/

  14. It is surreal … almost as if some Modi acolyte has compromised our PM Manmohan Singh. Congress and it’s friendly poodle media had worked very hard to put Kejriwal on the centerstage of Indian political discourse. They did manage to upstage NaMo for a few weeks from the mainstay of political rhetoric.

    But what a coup ! MMS has quite unwittingly handed over the baton once again to Modi. And this time AAP is also more than willing to jump onto this bandwagon. So far, AAP has avoided much talking about Modi. But for better or worse, Bhushan has broken that barrier. Now there is a one way road for them. It just cannot be taken back. Moreover Bhushan and MMS both have attacked Modi for exactly the thing for which a shrewd politician would not. Having seen the way Modi turned such attacks into advantage in 2002, 2007 and 2012 they seem to have learnt nothing. I wish I was in Congress to teach them a thing or two about politics.

    As per BJP, things have taken a scripted turn. From now on, AAP would be seen as just a “less corrupt” form of Congress. “less corrupt” just coz they are in power for the first time. And the discourse will now shift towards “mass murder”, Secularism, communalism, hindu-muslim from the water and power price which kejriwal worked so hard to bring into discussions. The genie that BJP rubs out of a chirag cannot be more benevolent than this.

  15. CHOOSING THE RIGHT MAN AS PRIME MINISTER OF INDIA USING WISDOM AND
    DISCRIMINTION

    My countrymen awake and arise to the occasion and save the nation from anarchy and chaotic situation
    opponents to its fold. Voting for AAP is nothing but voting for congress. Same is the case of voting for SP/BSP/RJD/JDU/DMK/BJD/NCP/CPI/CPM/JMM/YSRC/KRC/LJP is nothing but voting for congress and continuation of corrupt rule congress. Another very wrong prejudice created in the minds of dear Muslim brothers that BJP/MODI is against them. This is not true and you can see that there are no communal riots during BJP rule states or at the center.
    We as citizens of India must use our voting power in a very wise and judicious manner. NDA must be given a chance to get rid of corrupt rule of UPA. We must rise above the narrow consideration of caste, language and religion. SP is not doing anything for Muslims except scoring their votes in bulk. Similarly BSP is not doing anything special for dalits other than scoring their votes in bulk. These parties continuously carry on harping on the slogan of secularism which is nothing more than attracting minorities’ votes. AAP people were talking about congress corruption but immediately after election formed government with the help of congress and now fully helping congress to come back in power after election 2014.All educated people of India should explain these facts to the uneducated people so that they can exercise their voting rights wisely in election 2014.
    The present regime is an utter failure in case of their foreign policies. Pakistan army beheaded our soldier’s heads. Sri Lanka is treating Indian origin Tamils, Hindu minorities in Bangladesh are being killed, diplomats are ill-treated in foreign countries, China and Pakistan armies are everyday violating the border discipline and many more such incidents troubling Indians in foreign lands. India needs a government which can restore the national prestige and foreign powers must think many times before troubling India and Indians. Problem of unemployment, price rise, corruption, recovery of black money in foreign banks, sliding of economy in the field of industries, agriculture and service sector and many more such problems can be solved by a stable government only. Regional parties are very dangerous for the security and integrity of India. These parties create problems during the running of government.

    prevailing in the country. There is corruption prevailing in every field as proved by government agencies like CBI, CVC and CAG in case of 2G spectrum, Coal Scam, Common Wealth Games Scam, Railway Scam, VIP CHOPPER Scam and many more Scams during UPA2 regime. Prime Minister of India is not working independently but working under the remotely controlled power center established by congress president and her son. There are parties like SP/BSP/RJD/JDU/NCP/DMK/AAP which are helping congress directly or indirectly to continue the rule of corruption and loot.
    Recent entrant is AAP which was originated against corruption prevailing during congress rule. But what an irony now AAP is fully under the grip of congress and trying its best to deter Modi to become PM of India in 2014.What a magnetic power congress has got that it can

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